Cleaning away the muck

I don’t believe in listening to your feelings before your thoughts.  I don’t think you should consider instinct over your mind.  Which is why I’m torn right now. 

My head know’s that the odds are slim that the Dave and Nick Show have the cajones to enact the desperately needed cuts.  Are they likely to slash welfare?  Are they likely to start the bonfire of the quangos?  Are they, at the end of the day, likely to cut the circa£170billion per annum structural deficit that Gordon has left for them?

I don’t think so.  The Tories will be terrified of the media portraying them as the nasty party, so won’t shrink our welfare bill nor will they start scrapping all of the working jobless that comprise much of the the public (and public funded) sector. 

And if they are not going to do it via savings, are they going to do it via growth?  I think not.  Raising National Insurance is a tax on jobs.  The cost will, where possible, be passed to the consumer.  Great, we’re all hurt by it.  If the cost can’t be passed, for instance if the same good can be imported cheaper, the cost will hit employment.  This is especially true of small businesses that are already going into debt to get them through the recession, and manafacturing even more so.  And then there is the Capital Gains Tax rise.  Who is going to invest in new businesss, which involves taking a large risk, if the rewards are so meagre?  As new and small businesses provide the bulk of new employment (large companies tend to be fairly static overall) this is tragic.  But it’s also true for large companies that new investment will be more difficult to find.  Why would you invest any spare money you have in shares if your going to find 40-50% of it robbed by the taxman?  And then there’s the housing market to think of too.

What other options are left to them?  Taxing?  Although they will no doubt do it anyway, it won’t help.  If the economy doesn’t grow quickly, the wealth that can be taxed won’t grow quickly.  With their anti-business measures listed above, it will grow even slower.  And when you increase taxes, you increase tax avoidance as no one likes to see their wealth pillaged by some greedy looter.  If the amount of taxable wealth doesn’t grow, taxes  won’t bring in enough to fill the hole.

So I know that the odds of this change in management of fixing the problems are slim to none.  However, I can’t help but feel like a massive weight has lifted off my shoulders, like I’m being washed of 11 years of completely useless governance.  I can’t stop myself from feeling like the UK has become a better place.  The ID cards will be scrapped.  The National Identity register is to be scrapped.  Councils and other worthless public servants will be stopped from using anti-terror legislation to enforce their worthless rules.  HIPs will go too.  And we will see the raising of the tax threshold, even if it is only introduced gradually, to £10k.  That’ll help everyone who works for their living rather than mooches for it.  And, I’m letting my hope runaway here, they’ll have the good sense just raise the tax threshold for their special interest groups rather than give handouts.  I’d much rather they scrap all such benefits, but if at least they did it this way we’d reward work and we wouldn’t lose a fortune in government paper shufflers.  And then there’s the schools policy.  I know it’s not enough, they have been cowards in terms of allowing profit to be made but it’s a step in the right direction and once it starts who knows, maybe they’ll see that Sweden succeeded because it allowed profit making.

I know I shouldn’t let myself get too excited.  It won’t be long before we’re covered in a shower of shit from this new lot.  But I can’t help it.

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